.WAFL (l:<10^4މn53ontry(bרZSM Cbމn53o"Surl -http://www.InternetIndicators.com/index.htmlmime text/htmlhvrsdata Internet Indicators
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What are the Internet Economy Indicators

The Internet Economy is growing rapidly. Tools are needed to track and understand this expansion. The Internet Economy Indicators are such measures, designed to quantify the sales volume and employment in various groups of Internet-related products and services. They are derived from analysis of four "Layers" of the Internet Economy.

 Study Results
 Q & A on the Internet Economy
FeaturesFeatures

The Internet Economy generated more than $300 billion in U.S. revenue in 1998, and was responsible for 1.2 million jobs as of 1998, according to a study conducted by the University of Texas and sponsored by Cisco Systems. These two numbers—the Internet Economy Revenues Indicator and the Internet Economy Jobs Indicator—are based on analysis of four "Layers" of the Internet Economy.

 Key Findings

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Facts and Figures

   The Internet began as the ARPANET during the cold war in 1969. It was developed by the U.S. Department of Defense's (DOD) in conjunction with a number of military contractors and universities to explore the possibility of a communication network that could survive a nuclear attack. It continued simply because the DOD, it's contractors, and the universities found that it provided a very convenient way to communicate. (University of Regina)
 
   64 Million U.S. Adults Regular Internet Users Mediamark Research Inc. has released data which suggests that there are 64.2 million adults going online in the U.S. every month. Click here for full story. (NUA)
 
   56 percent of U.S. companies will sell their products online by 2000, up from 24 percent in 1998. (NUA)
 
   This summer 82 percent of college graduates will search for careers and employment information online. (NUA)
 
   A survey of 30,000 consumers in 30 nations by found that the U.S. not only has the fastest-growing number of Internet users, but the largest proportion of e-commerce consumers. (Roper Starch Worldwide)
 
   There are seven new people on the Internet every second. (Cisco Systems, Inc.)
 
   More than a million new jobs were created by the U.S. high-tech industry since 1993. (American Electronics Association)
 
   Preliminary employment data show that the U.S. high-tech industry employed 4.8 million workers in 1998, making it one of the nation's largest industries. (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
 
   Cisco Systems Inc. is today the world's largest Internet commerce site, selling more than $28 million in products every day. (Cisco Systems, Inc.)
 

Online Resources and Surveys
 
   Nua Internet Surveys
 
Economic Impact
 
   Information technology sectors are growing at double the rate of the overall economy and have jumped as a share of the economy from 6.4% in 1993 to 8.2% in 1998. (U.S. Department of Commerce)
 
   High-tech has driven more than a quarter of all economic growth since 1993. (U.S. Department of Commerce)
 
   In 1965, high-tech's share of business spending was 3%. In 1996, it was 45%. (U.S. Department of Commerce)
 
   In 1996, 7.4 million people worked in high-tech jobs, earning an average salary of $46,000, more than fifty percent more than the average wage of $28,000. (U.S. Department of Commerce)
 
Internet Usage
 
   1 in 6 people use the Internet in North America and Europe. (NUA)
 
   The number of women using the Internet worldwide will pass 96 million, or 45 percent of the world's Internet users in 2001. (Computer Economics)
 
   In 1993, there were 26,000 domain names in use. In 1999, there are 5 million web sites. (U.S. Department of Commerce/Netcraft)
 
   In 1993, 3 million people were connected to the Internet. In 1999, 80 million Americans are connected and approximately 200 million people worldwide. (U.S. Department of Commerce)
 
   364 million PCs were in use in 1998. (Computer Almanac Industry)
 
The Internet and Businesses
 
   Small businesses who use the Internet have grown 46% faster than those that do not. (American City Business Journals)
 
   Forty-four percent of U.S. companies are selling online; 36% more say they will do so by the end of the year. (Association of National Advertisers)
 
   Internet Advertising generated $1.92 billion in 1998, double the 1997 figure. (Internet Advertising Bureau)
 
   Small and home offices spent $51.1 billion on high-tech goods in 1998. (IDC)
 
Internet Service Providers
 
   The U.S. ISP market will generate $15.1 billion in 1999, a 45% increase over 1997. In Europe, the ISP market generated $4.3 billion in 1998. (IDC)

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The Internet Economy is growing rapidly. Tools are needed to track and understand this expansion. The Internet Economy Indicators are such measures, designed to quantify the sales volume and employment in various groups of Internet-related products and services. They are derived from analysis of four "Layers" of the Internet Economy.

 Study Results
 Q & A on the Internet Economy
FeaturesFeatures

The Internet Economy generated more than $300 billion in U.S. revenue in 1998, and was responsible for 1.2 million jobs as of 1998, according to a study conducted by the University of Texas and sponsored by Cisco Systems. These two numbers—the Internet Economy Revenues Indicator and the Internet Economy Jobs Indicator—are based on analysis of four "Layers" of the Internet Economy.

 Key Findings

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Mediamark Research Inc. —
64.2 Million U.S. Adults Regular Internet Users

Mediamark Research Inc. have released data which suggests that there are 64.2 million adults going online in the U.S. every month. Meanwhile, the amount of adults with access to the Internet either at home or at work rose by 16.3 percent to 83.7 million.

This means that 42.2 percent of the total U.S. adult population (over 18) are regular Internet users up 20 percent from the previous year. A study by the same group found that 53.5 million adults were regular Internet users in September 1997.

The study, Spring 1999 CyberStats, found that men are more frequent Internet users by a fraction. Of the entire online population, 51.4 percent are male and 48.6 percent are female. 44.9 million had accessed the Internet from home while 31.3 percent accessed from work during the timescale of the survey. When asked whether they had used an online service, 28.6 percent said they used AOL, 7.96 had used MSN, 1.96 million had used Compuserve and 1.93 had used Prodigy.

The figure is some 20 million short of the figure for U.S. adults online released by Intelliquest last month. Spring 1999 CyberStats counted the amount of adults online over the age of 18 while Intelliquest counted all adults online over the age of 16. The results of the survey are based on data collected from 25,000 consumers in an average 30-day period from March 1988 to February 1999.

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Internet Ecosystem
The Internet Ecosystem: The Business Model for the Internet Economy

Internet Economy

In any market economy, the rules of competition define who wins and who loses—for countries, businesses and people.

In the agrarian economy, land and resources determined who won and who lost. In the industrial economy, Michael Porter taught us that the value chain—and controlling as much of it as possible—was the basis of competition. In the Internet Economy, where knowledge, information and time are the prevailing currencies of competition, a new set of rules are emerging. The new rules reflect the basic nature of the Internet Economy: Based on technology standards, it promotes broad and massive market participation, while encouraging market anarchy. These rules are becoming tenets of competitive success and guideposts to prosperity for companies and people in market economies.

What is the Internet Ecosystem?

The Internet Ecosystem is the business model of the Internet Economy.

The prevailing model of competition in the Internet Economy is more like a web of inter-relationships than the hierarchical, command-and-control model of the Industrial Economy. Unlike the value chain, which rewarded exclusivity, the Internet Economy is inclusive and has low barriers to entry. Just like an ecosystem in nature, activity in the Internet Economy is self-organizing. The process of natural selection takes place around profit to companies and value to customers. As the Internet Ecosystem evolves both technologically and in population, it will be even easier and likelier for countries/companies/individuals to participate in the Internet Economy. Already, there is $1 trillion in technical infrastructure in place, ready and available for anyone to use at any time—free of charge. That's why new ideas and ways of doing things can come from anywhere at anytime in the Internet Economy. The old rules don't work any more. The Internet Ecosystem is the new business model of the Internet Economy.

What is the Model for Success?

The potential for success in the Internet Economy can be measured by the quality of a country's or company's ecosystem.

The quality of an ecosystem determines the potential for advancing the standard of living of a country, the shareholder value of a company and the participation of individuals in the economy. Cisco, as one of the first companies taking advantage of the Internet as a business medium, has developed a qualitative formula for measuring the quality of an ecosystem. The Internet Quotient is a self-assessment test of an organization's potential to create and leverage the Internet Ecosystem. The IQ is a product of two metrics, operations ecosystem; how a company uses the Internet to optimize its internal operations and market ecosystem; a company's ability to expand and create value for the entire ecosystem. Through a series of 20 questions a company can evaluate its own IQ results. While not scientifically linked, the IQ conceptually correlates with one of the most important measures used by Wall Street to measure the "fitness" of a company to compete successfully on the Internet—return on invested capital (ROIC). IQ is a blueprint for success in the Internet Economy—how well people will live in countries, how much value in the marketplace companies can build, what people should look for where they work and what skills they should learn.


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Internet Quotient (IQ) Test
The Internet Quotient (IQ) is a qualitative measure for determining a company's potential in the Internet Economy. By answering a series of 20 questions—10 in each of two categories—you can determine your company's own IQ.
 
Operations Ecosystem
Management Vision
Is senior management actively engaged in the opportunities/threats enabled by the Internet?
Yes  No
Business/IT Partnership
Are business strategy and technology design aligned and funded?
Yes  No
Customer Connectedness
Is Internet technology used to anticipate customer behaviors and recognize market changes?
Yes  No
E-Learning
Does the company have successful practices in Internet skills development and knowledge transfer?
Yes  No
Adaptive Technology Infrastructure
Is the company's technology infrastructure flexible enough to accommodate change and customization without sacrificing scalability and security?
Yes  No
E-Commerce
Are sales over the Internet an important component of overall revenues?
Yes  No
Ecosystem Potential
Does the company have experience managing multiple strategic relationships, (both internal and external; sometimes includes direct and indirect competitors)?
Yes  No
Employee Empowerment
Are employees empowered to leverage Internet technology and build employee ecosystems?
Yes  No
Executing in Internet Time
Does the company have operational experience getting to market early with new business strategies and ways of doing business?
Yes  No
Internet Returns
Are serious and established metrics for measuring the impact of Internet initiatives in place?
Yes  No
 
Market Ecosystem
Partnership
Is the company a sought out partner?
Yes  No
Market Vision
Does the company have a clearly articulated vision for its market that includes how other companies profit from its success?
Yes  No
Strategic Standards
Is the company a provider of or actively engaged in Internet technology standards development?
Yes  No
Network Effects
Does the company create ways for its customers to interact with other customers on its behalf?
Yes  No
Developer Community
Do companies exist in the companys market whose economic survival depends on the companys success?
Yes  No
Global Presence
Does the companys Internet strategy have geographical boundaries?
Yes  No
Market Innovation
Are third parties spontaneously creating Internet technologies and services that support the company?
Yes  No
Marketing Economies
Do 3rd parties (via ingredient branding), the media (through publications) and other forms of industry marketing (e.g., trade shows) support the marketing of the companys Internet story to customers?
Yes  No
Venture Capital Support
Are venture capitalists funding entrepreneurs or initiatives who are innovating around the company?
Yes  No
Venture Fund
Is the company investing in its future by funding companies or initiatives who are pursuing complementary Internet technologies?
Yes  No
 
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Financial Markets
The substantial growth in Internet related stocks has been dramatic. Below are several links to tools that can help you monitor and understand this incredible market activity.

Stock Quotes
 
FORTUNE

Infostock.com

Money Magazine

PAWWS

Stockmaster

Yahoo! Finance

 
Stock Charts
 
Big Charts

Prophet Info Services

Quote.com

The Street.com

 
NASDAQ Quarterly Growth Chart

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The Global Internet
   Global Online population in 1999 - 171 million Web users worldwide. (NUA)
 
   Global e-commerce Europe will surpass U.S. in e-commerce spending on consumer products in 2002. (Jupiter Communications)
 
   Today, over 50% of the online community originates from outside the US. (IDC)
 
   By 2005, non-US Web users are forecast to comprise 700 million of the total one billion users. (NUA)
 
   An English message will not be understood by the growing number of non-English Web users, 35% of all users online today. (NUA)
 
   The global e-commerce market is expected to reach $1.2 trillion by 2001. (Global Sight Corporation)
 
   Business users on the Web are three times more likely to purchase when addressed in their native language. (Forrester Research)
 
   In India, there is an immediate demand for 500,000 additional Internet connections. (NUA)
 
   47 million European households are expected to have Internet access by 2003. (NUA)
 
   There will be over 24.3 million Internet users in Latin America by 2003. (NUA)
 
International Resources
 
Global Electronic Commerce

International Sites on Electronic Commerce Policy

Observatory on the Information Society—UNESCO
(United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization)

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD): Recent studies of interest.


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Media
The number of technology related publications and the amount of coverage in traditional media outlets has grown with the advance of the Internet. Below are links to many of the most popular and influential sites.
 
Technology
 
Computer World

Internet World

Motley Fool

Network World

Red Herring


San Jose Mercury News High-Tech

Tech Web

The Industry Standard

Upside Today

Wired

ZDNet

 
General
 
Top 100 Newspapers

BusinessWeek

CNET

CNN

Forbes

Financial Times

Fortune

International Herald Tribune

Los Angeles Times

MSNBC

National Journal's Cloak Room

Newsweek

New York Times

San Jose Mercury News

Slate Magazine

Time

U.S. News Online

USA Today

Wall Street Journal

Washington Post

 
Market Research & Analyst
 
Forrester

Gartner Group

Jupiter Communications

IDC

Yankee Group

 
Online Resources & Surveys
 
CyberAtlas

GVU Center, College of Computing

InfoQuest

NUA Internet Surveys


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Government
The rapid growth of technology and the Internet has prompted government to respond. Below are links to new government institutions and some of the traditional places, too.
 
Technology Related
 
Federal Communications Commission (FCC)

Federal Trade Commission (FTC)

Global Electronic Commerce

International Sites on Electronic Commerce Policy

Internet Caucus Advisory Committee (Congress)

National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA)

National Institute of Standards and Technology

Office of Science and Technology Policy

Observatory on the Information Society—UNESCO
(United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization)

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD): Recent studies of interest.

President's Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection

President's Information Infrastructure Task Force

Remarks by the President to Technology '98 Conference

The Emerging Digital Economy

U.S. Documents on Electronic Commerce Policy

U.S. Government Sites on Electronic Commerce Policy

 
General
 
Federal Reserve

U.S. House of Representatives

U.S. Department of Commerce

U.S. Senate

U.S. Treasury Department

The White House


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Internet Organizations
As the technology industry has expanded, so has the need for a relationship with government. Many different organizations have been spawned because of this. Below are links to many of the new and some of the established organizations.
 
Association of Internet Professionals

Americans for Computer Privacy

Center For Democracy & Technology

CommerceNet

Electronic Messaging Association

Global Electronic Commerce

Global Information Infrastructure Commission

Global Internet Liberty Campaign

Global Internet Project

Harvard Information Infrastructure
Project


Internet Alliance

Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers

Internet Law and Policy Forum

Internet Society

Network Solutions

States Inventory Project

Voters Telecommunications Watch

Software & Information Industry Association's Electronic Commerce Web Resource (ECWR)


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What are the Internet Economy Indicators?

Measuring the Internet Economy

Rapid advances in Internet technologies and the subsequent proliferation of economic activity on the Internet have given rise to the Internet Economy. Its rapid growth, size and potential have prompted comparisons between this historic development and the Industrial Revolution.

While the physical aspects of any economy are still based on raw materials like steel, oil and gas, the Internet Economy is fundamentally different. This economy relies on high speed Internet networks and Internet applications - new competitive tools for business and electronic intermediaries to increase the efficiency of Internet-driven markets.

In spite of the excitement and optimism surrounding the Internet Economy, few comprehensive efforts have successfully measured the economic growth and jobs created by this emerging Internet Economy. A foundation for metrics and measurement is the key to understanding and analyzing issues involving this Internet Economy. Fundamental questions need to be answered. For example, what business sectors, products and services should be included in this Internet Economy? What methodologies are appropriate for measuring activities in this Internet world? How large is this Internet Economy? How fast is it growing?

The development of the Internet Economy Indicators, created by the University of Texas, and sponsored by Cisco Systems, seeks to fill this void by providing a solid foundation for conceptualizing and measuring the various components of the Internet Economy. These indicators—the Internet Economy Revenues Indicator and the Internet Economy Jobs Indicator—are built on a sophisticated analysis of four layers of the Internet Economy.

The Internet Economy Indicators are designed to quantify the sales volume and employment in various groups of Internet-related products and services. They are derived from analysis of four "Layers" of the Internet Economy: Internet Infrastructure, Internet Applications, Internet Intermediary, Internet Commerce.

The Four Layers of the Internet Economy

From a conceptual standpoint, the Internet Economy can be divided into four layers. Each Layer is listed below with descriptions of the types of companies and names of some of the actual companies in each category.

Layer One: The Internet Infrastructure Layer

This layer includes companies with products and services that help create an IP based network infrastructure, a prerequisite for electronic commerce. The categories in this infrastructure layer include:

    Internet backbone providers (e.g., Qwest, MCI Worldcom)

    Internet service providers (e.g., Mindspring, AOL, Earthlink)

    Networking hardware and software companies (e.g., Cisco, Lucent, 3Com)

    PC and Server manufacturers (e.g., Dell, Compaq, HP)

    Security vendors (e.g., Axent, Checkpoint, Network Associates)

    Fiber optics makers (e.g., Corning)

    Line acceleration hardware manufacturers (e.g., Ciena, Tellabs, Pairgain)

Layer Two: The Internet Applications Layer

Products and services in this layer build upon the above IP network infrastructure and make it technologically feasible to perform business activities online. The categories in this applications layer include:

    Internet consultants (e.g., USWeb/CKS, Scient, etc)

    Internet commerce applications (e.g., Netscape, Microsoft, Sun, IBM)

    Multimedia applications (e.g., RealNetworks, Macromedia)

    Web development software (e.g., Adobe, NetObjects, Allaire, Vignette)

    Search engine software (e.g., Inktomi, Verity)

    Online training (e.g., Sylvan Prometric, Assymetrix)

    Web-enabled databases (e.g., Oracle, IBM DB2, Microsoft SQL Server, etc; only Internet/intranet related revenues are counted)

Layer Three: The Internet Intermediary Layer

Internet intermediaries increase the efficiency of electronic markets by facilitating the meeting and interaction of buyers and sellers over the Internet. They act as catalysts in the process through which investments in the infrastructure and applications layers are transformed into business transactions. The categories in this intermediary layer include:

    Market makers in vertical industries (e.g., VerticalNet, PCOrder)

    Online travel agents (e.g., TravelWeb.com, 1Travel.com)

    Online brokerages (e.g., E*Trade, Schwab.com, DLJDirect)

    Content aggregators (e.g., Cnet, ZDnet, Broadcast.com)

    Portals/Content providers (e.g., Yahoo, Excite, Geocities)

    Internet ad brokers (e.g., Doubleclick, 24/7 Media)

    Online advertising (e.g., Yahoo, ESPNSportszone)

Layer Four: The Internet Commerce Layer

Internet commerce involves the sales of products and services to consumers or businesses over the Internet. The categories in this Internet commerce layer include:

    E-tailers (e.g., Amazon.com, eToys.com)

    Manufacturers selling online (e.g., Cisco, Dell, IBM)

    Fee/Subscription-based companies (e.g., thestreet.com, WSJ.com)

    Airlines selling online tickets

    Online entertainment and professional services

It is important to note that many companies are players at multiple layers. For instance, Microsoft and IBM are important players at the Internet infrastructure, applications, and Internet commerce layers, while AOL (before the acquisition of Netscape) is a key player in the infrastructure, intermediary and commerce layers. Similarly Cisco and Dell are key players at the infrastructure and commerce layers. Even though the four-layer Internet Economy framework makes it difficult to separate revenues for multi-layer players, the framework presents a more real-world view of the Internet Economy landscape versus a single-layered measurement process. Further, the multi-layered approach lets us analyze how companies choose to enter one Internet layer, choosing later to extend their activities to the other Internet layers.

Research Assumptions and Methodology

Several methods of data collection were used to compile the estimates of the Internet Economy. In-depth research was conducted on over 3,000 companies that participate in one or more of the four layers of the Internet economy. Phone-based interviews were conducted with 2,830 of the smaller Internet players, and just over 100 in-depth interviews were conducted with the largest companies playing in the Internet Economy. In addition, we analyzed company annual reports, product literature and web sites for about 300 of the largest companies to develop a solid understanding of how they fit into one or more of the four layers. Universe estimates for Internet companies were developed from several web-based databases and final Internet Economy revenues were estimated using a combination of enumeration and statistical sampling and projection techniques.

The following conventions and assumptions were used for compiling the research data:

  • Companies studied were U.S.-based and generated all or part of their revenues from Internet or IP products and/or services.
  • The scope of the research was limited to companies who had revenues associated directly with the Internet. The study did not include second or higher order impacts of the Internet Economy (e.g., an accounting firm generating revenues from pure Internet based companies).
  • Revenues and jobs were based on worldwide estimates of U.S.-based companies.
  • Revenues were calculated based upon companies estimates of the percentage of their revenues that were Internet-related. For the largest 300 companies, we analyzed products and services and categorized them into one or more of the four layers and estimated revenues for each layer using phone interviews, annual reports, and other secondary research data.
  • Since most companies were unable to estimate the percent of their total employees dedicated to Internet-related revenues, jobs estimates were attributed using the ratio of Internet revenues to total revenues.
More information about the Internet Economy Indicators.

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Features

The Internet Economy Indicators

The Internet Economy generated an estimated $301.4 billion in U.S. revenue and was responsible for 1.2 million jobs in 1998, according to a study by the University of Texas Center for Research in Electronic Commerce.

These two numbers—the Internet Economy Revenues Indicator (IERI) and the Internet Economy Jobs Indicator (IEJI)—are the principal findings of this first ever study which was commissioned by Cisco Systems.

Revenues and jobs were measured using a four-layer structure developed by the researchers and shown in the table below. The component indicators in each level were added, with some adjustment, to make up the larger Revenues Indicator and Jobs Indicator.

 

Estimated Internet

Revenues

Attributed Internet

Jobs

Internet Infrastructure Layer

$114,982.8 M

372,462

Application Infrastructure Layer

$56,277.6 M

230,629

Intermediary/Market Maker Layer

$58,240 M

252,473

Internet Commerce Layer

$101,893.2 M

481,990

The Internet Economy Indicators

$301,393 M

1,203,799

The way in which Internet revenues and jobs are reported and how companies estimate them complicates the task of adding up the four layers. Simple aggregation of the four layers yields $331.39 billion and 1,337,554 jobs. Because we currently estimate the overlap of revenues between the commerce layer and other layers to be $23.3 billion to $31 billion, we estimate the total Internet Economy at around $300 billion. Similarly, we have revised downward the jobs numbers to reflect the subtraction of overlap.

Although overlap makes it more difficult to obtain accurate estimates, they point to the existence of an Internet Ecosystem, which is critical to understanding the explosion of the Internet Economy. The $23-31 billion revenue overlap shows the inter-connected nature of the various layers of this new economy. It also highlights new business and revenue models spawned by the Internet.

It should be noted that the infrastructure and application layers reflect combined investments in the Internet, intranets and extranets. In other words, these two layers represent the revenues associated with the IP infrastructure and applications. The intermediary and commerce layers only capture Internet-based activities. Extranet based business-to-business transactions are likely to become significant in the near future as more of the traditional EDI based transactions are moved over to extranets. However, given that less than 10% of companies were estimated to have intranets in 1998, the volume of extranet based business was likely to be relatively small.

The Four Layers of the Internet Economy

From a conceptual standpoint, the Internet Economy can be divided into four layers. Each Layer is defined with descriptions of the types of companies and names of some of the actual companies in each category.


Key Findings from the Internet Economy Indicators Study

  • Internet Commerce is much bigger today than any previous estimates

The Internet commerce layer revenue of $101.89 billion is much larger than previously reported figures. This larger revenue estimate is attributable to the comprehensive nature of the universe of companies identified for this layer. For example, the universe of U.S. companies in this layer consisted of close to 11,000 players, which is in sharp contrast to the top 50 or 100 companies often considered in Web-revenue measurement studies. In fact, our study suggests that the top 80 players at the Internet commerce layer contributed only a third of the layers revenues.

Sampling from a comprehensive database enabled us to discover significant online activity in business sectors that have not received much attention in prior studies. For example, with the exception of online grocer Peapod, online grocery sales do not make the top-100 Internet sales list. Nonetheless, we found that online grocery sales already constitute a significant volume of business.

  • The Internet Economy is growing at an astounding rate.

The U.S. Internet Economy grew at an estimated CAGR of 174.5% from 1995 to 1998, compared to the overall world-wide average economic growth rate (which includes the U.S. Internet Economy) of 3.8% in the same period (see table below). While a direct comparison between worldwide GDP and the Internet Economy Revenue Indicators is unwarranted due to differences in what the measures stand for, it is evident that the Internet Economy is growing at an astounding rate.

A more convincing comparison underscoring the rapid growth in the Internet Economy involves a comparison with GDP growth in the U.S. economy. The U.S. GDP grew at a CAGR of 2.8% from $6762 billion in 1995 to $7552 in 1998. Admittedly much of this unparalleled initial growth in the Internet Economy could be attributed to a large substitution effect whereby economic activities conducted in the physical or non-Internet world are now being transferred to the Internet and IP-based networks.

WW Gross domestic product at purchasing power parity exchange rates

95

96

97

98

99

CAGR to 98

GDP in $ Billions

33,646

35,714

37,870

39,103

40,714

3.8%

Internet Economy in $ Billions

5

301*

174.5%

US Gross domestic product in $ Billions

6,762

6,995

7,270

7,552

7,798

2.8%

US % of WW GDP

23%

24%

25%

26%

26%

Source: International Monetary Fund, *The University of Texas at Austin

  • The Internet Economy Already Rivals Century-old Industries

In just five years (since the introduction of the World Wide Web), the Internet Economy already rivals century-old sectors like energy ($223 billion), automobiles ($350 billion), and telecommunications ($270 billion) in size. Also, the average revenue per Internet Economy worker is about $250,000, or about 65 percent higher than their Industrial Economy counterparts. For example, there are 1.5 million workers in the manufacturing component of the auto industry generating $240 billion or $160,000 per employee.

  • The Internet Economy by itself is one of the major economies in the world

With more than $300 billion in Internet-based revenues in 1998, the total value of the U.S.-based Internet Economy is by itself one of the top 20 economies in the world. With the caveat that total revenues are not directly comparable to GDP, and for the sake of illustration, if the U.S.-based Internet Economy (as measured in terms of total revenues) were a nation by itself, it would rank 18th worldwide behind Switzerland and ahead of Argentina in terms of GDP. If the U.S. based Internet Economy grows at its four-year average rate of 174.5%, it will rapidly climb the ranking chart. (Source: The Economist: 1999 World in Figures, UT-Cisco Study).

  • The Internet Economy has had a major impact on jobs and responsibilities

With 1.203 million Internet/IP-based jobs, the Internet Economy is reshaping the job market. Many of these jobs (e.g., Web design and development, Internet consulting) did not exist prior to 1994/1995, and companies have also re-designed existing jobs to meet the challenges and opportunities of the Internet Economy. An estimated 5.9 million Americans work in the broadly defined high-tech field, of which 20% were associated with the Internet Economy as of 1998. As pure Internet players flourish and as traditional businesses become more dependent on Internet related technologies for their daily business operations, new jobs will continue to be created and existing jobs will continue to be reshaped in the new economy.

  • Infrastructure and applications players make up over half of the Internet economy

Revenues of the Internet infrastructure and applications layers totaled $171 billion, while the intermediary and Internet commerce layers contributed $160 billion. This shows the nascent state of the Internet Economy, and suggests the need to foster rapid growth at the intermediary and commerce layers. As economic activity in virtually every business sector shifts to the Internet or IP based networks, the intermediary and commerce layers should ultimately turn out to be much larger than the infrastructure and applications layers. Of course, the infrastructure and applications layers are also likely to experience dramatic growth as the Internet keeps expanding globally and as companies commit themselves to building intranets and extranets. Given that less than 10% of companies had an intranet in 1998, there is ample room for sustained growth in the infrastructure and applications layers.

  • Internet Infrastructure companies have the highest revenues per employee

Reaping average revenues of $308,708 per employee, the Internet Infrastructure is the most productive layer of the Internet Economy. The Applications layer averages $244,015; the Internet Intermediary layer $230,678 and the Internet Commerce layer averages $211,401. Overall, the average revenue per employee is $250,534.

Many of the companies at the infrastructure layer are highly established companies that are most likely enjoying significant economies of scale and scope. While it could be argued that players in the applications layer should have the highest economies of scale and scope, it should be noted that the application layer not only consists of large software vendors, but also includes many Internet consulting and Web design firms who have to customize their offerings for each customer. Further, this layer has players who customize software applications for Internet commerce. Players at the intermediary and commerce layers are relatively new to this electronic medium, and traditional bricks-and-mortar companies going online are unlikely to be able to operate in the same lean-and-mean fashion as the pure Internet companies, at least in the initial stages.

  • Major corporations, not just start-ups, are fueling the Internet Economy

While the Internet Economy has spawned thousands of startups, major companies still play a significant role. For example, the top 15 companies account for nearly one-third of the estimated 1.203 million Internet-based jobs.

  • The market value of U.S. companies with substantial Internet revenue exceeds $3 trillion

Of the 3,000 companies measured, the 20 of the largest companies with significant Internet-based revenues alone have a combined market value of $2.4 trillion. When added to the other companies, this number exceeds $3 trillion. The Internet has played a key role in raising market values as investors flock to companies that are leveraging the Internet for business opportunities. (Microsoft, Intel, AT&T, Cisco, IBM, MCI/WorldCom, Lucent, Dell, SBC, AOL, BellSouth, Time-Warner, Bell Atlantic, Ameritech, HP, GTE, Sprint, Compaq, AirTouch, Oracle).

  • Internet intermediaries are critical to Internet Economy growth

While it is intuitive to think of "disintermediation" in an electronic world, this study provides evidence that Internet intermediaries are already playing an important role in shaping the Internet Economy. These intermediaries generated and estimated $58 billion in 1998, nearly a third of the total revenues for Internet Commerce and intermediary based transactions. It is also important to note that only commissions (which typically account for less than 10% of the value of a transaction) were counted as revenues for intermediaries like online travel agents and auction houses. In other words, the total business associated with intermediaries were much bigger than the $58 billion figure.

Conclusions

Based on the companies that make up the Internet Economy, our research has yielded figures that exceed all prior estimates. Perhaps more importantly, this study clearly designates the roles and the relative magnitudes of four distinct but related layers of this Internet economy.

The first two layers (infrastructure and applications) provide the foundation for the conduct of Internet commerce, and accounted for more than half of the total revenues associated with the digital economy. Estimated at $58 billion, the third intermediary layer also is a significant contributor to the Internet economy, lending empirical support to the widely held academic notion that electronic intermediaries or Internet middlemen will be crucial to the success of electronic commerce.

The fourth Internet commerce layer turned out to be much larger than previously reported estimates. The relatively large figure ($101.89 billion) is attributable to the comprehensive nature of the universe we described at this layer. For instance, with the exception of online grocer Peapod, online grocery sales do not make the top-100 Internet sales list. Nonetheless, we found that online grocery sales already constitute a large volume of business, a fact that has been ignored in previous studies.

While any study of this complexity will rely on assumptions and responses from companies participating in the study, the above figures are based on in-depth research and interviews with more than 3,000 organizations, extensive analyses of financial statements, products and service descriptions as well as multiple secondary sources. This is the most comprehensive study to date, measuring the size of the emerging Internet Economy, and should serve as a promising starting point for more comprehensive and detailed measurements.


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The Internet Economy Indicators
 

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Q and A on the Internet Economy
General Questions

A detailed report on the study will be posted
on this site in the near future.


Q. What is the Internet Economy?

The Internet Economy is made up of companies directly generating all or some part of their revenues from Internet or Internet-related products and services. These companies are the Internet infrastructure and Internet applications players, such as Cisco, Dell, IBM, HP, Oracle, Microsoft and Sun, whose products and services make it feasible to use the Internet for electronic commerce. For example, IBM sells servers and PCs that are used to gain access to the Internet. Similarly, 3Com sell modems and Cisco sells routers, all used to gain access to the Internet. The Internet-related revenues from these companies, for example, are included in the estimates for the entire Internet Economy.

Then there are companies selling products and services over the Internet. This includes pure Internet based sellers like Amazon.com and eToys.com as well as bricks-and-mortar companies, such as LL Bean and Alaska Airlines, who are also conducting a part of their business on the Internet. Further, electronic intermediaries or Internet middlemen, such as Ebay or Etrade, who act as catalysts by facilitating the interaction between buyers and sellers. So the overall Internet Economy is made up of the revenues of infrastructure and applications players, electronic intermediaries and online sellers.

It is important to point out that the Internet Economy is not just a collection of 'high-tech' companies. It includes any company that generates revenues from the Internet. For example, a part of the revenues generated by traditional telecommunications companies are counted in this economy since they carry IP traffic over their miles and miles of copper, coaxial and fiber lines. We did not, however, count all revenues from all technology companies. Not even 100% of Cisco's revenues were considered to be part of the Internet Economy, since not all networking devices are attached to the Internet.

Q. How did you measure the Internet Economy?

There were two important steps to how we measured the Internet Economy. The first was to develop a conceptual framework and taxonomy for attributing revenues and employees in the Internet Economy. Since the manner in which businesses operate in the Internet Economy can vary substantially, we decided to group companies based upon core business activities.

The Internet can be thought of as a network of networks, made up of many component parts. This may consists of networking hardware, networking software, servers, PCs, Web software, Web designers, Web operators, and the companies that are actually doing business one the Web. There is a natural structure or hierarchy to the Internet that can be directly traced to how businesses generate revenues. Based upon this type of structure, we use the following four-layer architecture to group companies, revenues and employees. We call these four layers, the Internet Economy Indicators.

    Layer 1: The Internet Infrastructure Indicator—The gross revenues and attributed employees from companies that manufacture or provide products and services that make up the Internet network infrastructure. This layer includes companies that provide telecommunications and fiber backbones, "last mile" access, Internet dial-up access and end-user networking equipment necessary for the proliferation of Internet based Electronic Commerce (EC). It also includes PC and server manufacturers, modem manufacturers and other manufacturers of hardware necessary for the Internet to function.
    Layer 2: The Internet Applications Indicator—The gross revenues and attributed employees from companies that provide electronic commerce applications (e.g., Netscape, IBM, Microsoft, Sun), Internet consulting services (e.g., USWeb/CKS, Scient), multimedia applications (e.g., RealNetworks, Macromedia), Web development software (e.g., NetObjects, Allaire, Vignette), search engine software (e.g., Inktomi, Verity), Web-enabled databases (e.g., Oracle, IBM DB2, Microsoft SQL Server, Sybase, Informix), and online training services (e.g., Sylvan Prometric, Assymetrix). Products and services in this layer build upon the network infrastructure and make it technologically possible to perform business activities online.
    Layer 3: The Internet Intermediary Indicator—The gross revenues and attributed employees from companies that increase the efficiency of electronic markets as Internet middlemen by facilitating the meeting and interaction of buyers and sellers via the World Wide Web and Internet. This layer includes online brokerages, Internet ad brokers (e.g., Doubleclick, 24/7 Media), portals/content providers (e.g., Yahoo, Excite, Geocities), market makers in vertical industries (e.g., VerticalNet, PCOrder), content aggregators (e.g., Cnet, ZDnet, Broadcast.com), and online travel agencies.
    Layer 4: The Internet Commerce Indicator—The gross revenues and attributed employees from companies that generate product and service sales to consumers or businesses over the World Wide Web and Internet. This layer includes online retailing, pay-to-use content and other business-to-business and business-to-consumer transactions conducted on the World Wide Web and Internet.
The second step we took to measure the Internet Economy was the actual data collection methodology. In-depth research was conducted on over 3,000 companies that participate in one or more of the four layers of the Internet economy. Phone-based interviews were conducted with 2,830 of the smaller Internet players, and just over 100 in-depth interviews were conducted with the largest companies playing in the Internet Economy. In addition, we analyzed company annual reports, product literature and web sites for about 300 of the largest companies to develop a solid understanding of how they fit into one or more of the four layers. Universe estimates for Internet companies were developed from several Web-based databases and final Internet Economy revenues were estimated using a combination of enumeration and statistical sampling and projection techniques.

Finally, extensive secondary research was used and included reports from IDC, Dataquest, Forrester, Dell'Oro and many other research firms. The World Wide Web proved to be the most effective source of information on companies involved in the Internet economy.

Q. Do the Internet Economy Indicators include economic activity generated by intranets and extranets as well as the Internet?

The Internet Economy Indicators focus only on Internet related activities and revenues. It does not capture any revenues or transactions that occur over private corporate intranets or extranets. However, the networking infrastructure hardware purchased for corporate intranets and extranets is taken into account in layers one and two.

Measurement Related Questions

Q. Are the estimates restricted to the U.S?

The estimates are based on the worldwide Internet-related sales of US-based companies. Cisco's foreign Internet sales are included in this number because Cisco is a US-based company.

Q. Do the Indicators include any measurements of Internet usage by number of users or volume of traffic?

The Internet Economy Indicator does not measure Internet activity by user or volume of traffic, but measures Internet activity from a revenue and employee perspective.

Q. Will the Internet Economy Indicators be adjusted for inflation and in real terms?

Yes, over the course of the next several months, as the Indicators are measured every three months, we do intend to develop an economic model that adjusts for inflation and measures real growth. Our goal is to develop as quickly as possible a model that will allow us to adjust Internet revenue growth in a way that accounts for all of the unique economic realities of the Internet Economy. For example, before we are able to adjust the revenue and employee estimates for the Internet Economy, we need to have a better understanding of how the Internet ecosystem works. The rate of new company and new product announcements, as well as the rate of mergers and acquisitions makes the measurement of this economy a moving target.

Also, we need to take into account the profound impact that technology has had on typical econometrics, in that rapidly expanding economic growth is accompanied by rapidly decreasing costs for technology. Creating reasonable economic adjusters becomes even more complicated that as technology costs are decreasing, computing power and communications bandwidth are increasing.

Q. How accurate is the estimate of the Internet Economy?

Based upon our four-layer taxonomy, we believe that the estimates for each layer are very accurate. To compile our estimates, we completed research on just over 3,000 U.S. based companies that currently operate in the Internet Economy. In addition, we estimated revenues and employees from close to 300 of the larger technology companies by reviewing annual reports and looking at company web sites and product/service offerings. Finally, we leveraged existing market data that included secondary research reports from IDC, Dataquest, Forrester, Del'Oro, Cahners In-Stat, IntelliQuest and many other technology research firms.

Q. Will this be an ongoing measurement?

The goal of this massive research undertaking is to provide quarterly updates of the Internet Economy Indicators. Since this economy can change so radically overnight, quarterly estimates will be very important for understanding the Internet Economy and the Internet Ecosystem. The ongoing measurements will expand beyond simply measuring revenues and employees and will dig deeper into understanding how this economy operates.

Q. How are the four indicators combined into one employment number and one revenue number?

The four indicators are combined into one number by estimating and eliminating the overlap and double counting of revenues across all four layers.

Q. Are the Internet Economy Indicators comparable to GDP or GNP?

It is not a straight comparison. The gross domestic product or gross national product is based on value of goods and services produced in the U.S., minus any direct or indirect taxes. The Internet Economy Indicators only measure total revenues and jobs. Our long-term goal is to create an index that mirrors GDP.

Q. What if a company generates revenues in more than one indicator layer? Are the revenues broken out by layer?

Yes, but there is a complexity in terms of assigning revenues and employees to each layer, since companies don't report revenues or employees this way. Across the board we were faced with the challenge of identifying what portion of a company's revenues were Internet-related. For some companies, it was simple because they were pure Internet companies. Companies like Amazon.com, Vignette, eBay or NetObjects are all 100-percent Internet companies. In addition, many of these Internet 'pure-plays' only operate within one of the Internet Economy layers.

For other companies, attributing revenues to the Internet was much more complicated. These companies are not 100 percent Internet companies, and they generate revenues in more than one of the Internet Economy layers. For example, IBM generates revenues in the infrastructure layer one from its ISP business as well as from PC, server and networking equipment. In the applications layer, IBM generates revenues from its E-business software and consulting services. In the Internet commerce layer, IBM generates revenues from its ShopIBM.com commerce site.

For companies playing at multiple layers, in any layer we only count revenues that are attributable to products and services in that layer. In order to combine the revenues across all layers, we take out the Internet commerce revenues for players whose products/services are counted at infrastructure and/or applications layers and who also sell some or all of these online.

Q. Does the estimate of the number of employees include Internet-related employees at non-Internet companies?

Yes. The research did not focus solely on 100-percent Internet companies, or companies that generated 100 percent of their revenues from the Internet. We looked at all companies that were generating all or some part of their revenues from Internet or Internet-related products or services. Therefore we counted Internet-related employees from traditional bricks-and-mortar companies like Barnes and Noble or Lands End.

Q. Is it double counting to include finished PC's and servers as well as their operating systems? Won't the value of the operating systems (with a mark-up) be reflected in the price of the box?

Yes. For example, we only counted revenues associated with servers and desktops leaving out operating systems. Similarly we did not count OEM modems as they are a part of the PC, and took care to consider branded modems that are sold separately.

Q. How do you account for the revenues from computer manufacturers? Do you count all of their revenues?

No. Since we know that not all home PCs are purchased and used for Internet access and because we know that not all corporate PCs have access to the Internet, we adjusted the revenues attributed to the Internet Economy based upon the estimated percent of PCs sold in 1998 that were purchased for Internet access.

For example, we know from IDC research estimates that approximately 90% of all PCs purchased for the home in 1998 are being used for Internet access. In the corporate world, that estimate is approximately 50% of all PCs purchased. Therefore, we accounted for PC revenues using the percentage of those PCs that were used for Internet access.

Q. Are there examples of companies who have revenues from a product or service counted in more than one layer? If so, how do you account for this in the total number with out double counting?

Yes, there are companies that have revenues counted in more than one layer. However, this only occurs between layers one through three and layer four. For example, adjusted revenues from Dell Computer's sales of PCs are included in the infrastructure layer and are also accounted for in the Internet commerce layer due to online PC sales. When we estimate the total revenues from the Internet Economy, we remove from the commerce layer the double counted revenues for any company that also has revenues from the same product or service in the other layers.

Q. Explain how this is a global study.

It measures the world-wide revenues of U.S.-based companies.

Q. How will you handle changes in data collection and/or research methodology over time?

For significant changes, we will revise our previous estimates.

Q. How did you define your universe?

Based on our knowledge of the types and categories of companies that make the Internet possible, we began compiling a list of the companies that we know participate in the Internet Economy. We operated on the following premise: If you are participating in the Internet Economy, you had better be on the World Wide Web.

Using that premise, the Web was the ideal tool for building a database of companies that participate in the Internet Economy. Using the layered conceptual model, we generated extensive lists from Yahoo, Excite, HotBot and other directory services. We searched through the lists to ensure that we did not miss the big players who may account for the larger share of revenues in a subcategory within a layer.

Since most Web directories only provide URL links, we realized that it would be extremely time consuming to link to each company's web site to get their contact information. In order to expedite the development of a contact database, we wrote database code to pull the company name and URL from the search directory listings. We then wrote additional code that matched each URL against the Internet Domain Registry database. What could have taken a potential 1,000 man hours was accomplished in 16 hours using the Web and web-based technology.

Using the same "you've got to be on the Web" premise, we found an extremely valuable database of secure site URLs from a UK-based company called Netcraft. This database was used to create the universe estimate for companies conducting Internet transactions. This was the most appropriate and accurate sampling method to conduct the first large-scale supply-side estimate of Internet commerce revenues.

Q. What elements could you be missing in your definition of the Internet economy?

We believe that our estimates are conservative and could in the future include revenues and employees from other companies that may be generating Internet-related revenues. For example, we have not considered wireless technologies in the Infrastructure layer as it appeared to be a relatively small part of the IP infrastructure. This is likely to change in the near future. The applications and intermediary layers have been enumerated quite exhaustively. At the commerce layer, we feel very comfortable about the universe as defined by Web sites with secure sockets layers as well as large listings from Yahoo and other directory services. We are confident that our universe is the most comprehensive listing relative to other studies that have focused only on the top 100 players.

Q. What will you do if a foreign company were to acquire a major U.S. player?

For the moment we will go back and revise our estimates to date. However, in the long run, this study will include International Internet Economy estimates as well. Therefore, when these types of acquisitions or mergers take place, the net effect on the global Internet Economy will be zero. The revenues will be accounted for regardless of country of origin.

Q. How did you come up with the 4 layers?

In order to measure the Internet Economy we looked at a logical way in which the Internet is structured and how businesses operate on the Internet. We noticed that empirical studies in the Internet market focused almost exclusively on Web-based transactions. While the volume of transactions is an important aspect of the Internet economy, we recognized the crucial role of electronic intermediaries in market making, providing trust and assurance services.

This led to separating intermediary-based transactions from direct buyer-seller transactions. In other words, these Internet middlemen have a catalytic effect on the proliferation of Internet commerce. In fact, we expect this layer to increase very rapidly along with the transaction layer in the near future.

Having considered transactions and intermediaries, we asked ourselves: what else does it take to conduct Internet commerce? Network infrastructure and applications were the obvious choices. Accordingly we created the Internet infrastructure and applications layers, which provide the technological feasibility of online commerce.

Q. Did you count 100 percent of the revenues from all networking equipment manufacturers?

No. Using available estimates of the percent of corporate PCs that are networked and were purchased for use on the Internet, we adjusted the actual revenues from networking equipment manufacturers attributed to the Internet economy. For example we know that approximately 50% of all PCs purchased for businesses in 1998 have Internet connectivity. Using these types of deflators we attributed networking equipment and Internet access device revenues as follows:
  • Routers: Consider 100% based on the premise that when these are deployed in LAN environments they are primarily being used as edge devices.
  • Dial access servers and concentrators: Consider 100%
  • ATM, Frame Relay switches and access devices: Consider 50%. Studies by the ATM Forum and Distributed Networking Associates show that ATM and Frame Relay systems carry significant non-IP traffic like SNA and IPX/SPX.
  • Layer 3 switches: Consider 100% given that they perform routing functions in a LAN environment.
  • Layer 2 switches: Consider 50%, based on the premise that 50% of the desktops purchased in the corporate environment in 1998 are connected to the Internet or an intranet.
  • Shared LAN hubs: Consider 50% (same logic as above)
  • NICs: Consider 50% (same logic)
  • Branded modems + modems only PC card: Consider 90%. Theoretically it could be 100%, but modems could be used to dial up to servers using some proprietary VAN.
  • ISDN equipment: Take 75% (similar logic as in modems)
  • Cable modems: 100%
  • CSU/DSU: Consider 25%, a relatively small percentage of Internet connectivity occurs through T-1s/fractional T-1s. Probably a very conservative estimate though.
  • xDSL: Consider 100%
Q. Why did you choose to measure sales revenue and employment? What's next? What will it take to create a proper index to measure this Internet economy?

Revenues are relatively easy to measure and understand, and is consistent with previous studies. Jobs are an equally important indictor, but are more difficult to measure because of the overlap between Internet and non-Internet jobs. To create an index comparable to GDP, we will have to measure value added within each of the layers. While it is an extremely complex task, it can be done with the help of sufficient resources and extensive data collection effort.

Findings Related Questions

Q. What types of companies contributed most to the Internet Economy?

Given the nascent state of the Internet economy, it is not surprising that a few infrastructure players like Cisco, IBM, Sun, Compaq, Dell and Oracle contributed most significantly to the Internet economy. We expect this trend to continue; however, with the proliferation of the infrastructure, bricks-and-mortar companies selling products and services will most likely play an increasingly significant role at the commerce layer.

Q. If you perform a quick calculation, it appears that the 'Internet Economy' makes up 4 percent of U.S. GDP. Is that a close assessment of the impact of the Internet on the economy?

Since GDP measures accounting value added, we need to be careful not to do a direct comparison of GDP and total revenues. If a manufacturer sells a product to a retailer over the Internet, and if the retailer also sells the same product online, we will over-count revenues by simply adding the manufacturers and the retailers revenues. A GDP calculation would avoid such a problem.
Having said that, it is true that in four short years (1995-1998) the Internet Economy, broadly defined to include the Internet infrastructure, has generated significant economic activity. We believe that we will see a dramatic increase in these numbers over the next few years as more economic activity gets shifted from traditional channels to the Internet and extranets.

Q. What do these findings say about the Internet Ecosystem?

If you consider the two lowest layers as inputs to the Internet economy and treat the two uppermost layers as representing the output, it is evident that the inputs are as big as the outputs. However, this does not appear bad given that the infrastructure is still maturing, much like a toddler taking its first steps. You cannot expect a lot of business activity in a remote shopping mall that is not conveniently connected by an efficient highway system. Layers 1 and 2 reflect the highway and the shopping mall complex, and related investments are a prerequisite for the overall development in this Internet economy. So the numbers seem to suggest that while we are in the very early stages of the Internet Economy, we are moving in the right direction.

Q. What trends do you expect across the different layers over time?

All four layers should experience rapid growth. A lot more investments will be made in the infrastructure in the coming years. Ultimately, however, layers 3 and 4 have to grow bigger than 1 and 2 for the Internet economy to be considered productive.

Q. Are you most likely underestimating or overestimating the figures?

Our estimates are highly conservative. Further, there are online revenues that were not attributed to any layer. For example, if you spend $500 to buy an airline ticket through an online travel agency, the only revenue that is counted is the commission associated with the ticket sales. While travel agencies report the commission as their revenue, we will consider the feasibility of expanding the scope of the intermediary layer to include all sales that were made through electronic intermediaries.

Q. What is the unified revenue number from all four layers of the Internet Economy?

We estimate that the Internet Economy is approximately a $301.4 billion dollar economy today. The total revenues from each of the Internet Economy Indicators totals $331.39 billion U.S. dollars. The $301.4 billion dollar estimate was arrived at by removing estimated double counting of revenues between the commerce layer and the other layers and estimate the overlap or double counting to be between $23.3 billion and $31 billion.

It is important to understand the distinction between the Internet Economy revenues and 'high-tech' revenues. The Internet Economy Indicators measured Internet or Internet-related revenues only and did not include revenues for non-Internet business activities. For example, not all of Cisco's revenues are counted since not all networked PCs actually have Internet access.

Q. What is the unified number of jobs from all four layers of the Internet Economy?

The attributed jobs for the Internet Economy is estimated to be 1.2 million jobs. The total attributed jobs for all four layers totals 1.33 million jobs, and when we account for the estimated overlap of revenues and activities we adjusted the number to 1.2 million jobs.

It is important to note here again that these are jobs directly attributed to Internet related revenues. These jobs include IT staff, marketing, sales and any other person who might be involved in driving Internet-related revenues.

Q. What percent of the Internet Economy revenues is U.S. versus worldwide?

The Internet Economy Indicators focused strictly on U.S. companies and their total worldwide Internet-related revenues. The average breakout of U.S. versus worldwide sales for some of the larger companies in the study is approximately 75% U.S. and 25% non-U.S. However, since the majority of the Internet Economy is made up of small privately held companies, a much larger portion of the revenue number is U.S. based. A rough estimate is that the ratio should be closer to 85% U.S. and 15% non-US.

Q. What percent of the Internet Economy jobs are U.S. based and what percent are non-U.S.?

This number is harder to estimate than the revenue numbers. Since we have attributed employees using the ratio of Internet-related revenues to total worldwide revenues, a reasonable assumption would be to use the same ration of U.S. to worldwide revenues. Therefore, a rough estimate would be that approximately 85% of the attributed jobs are U.S. based and 15% are non-U.S. jobs.

Care should be taken when making this type of estimate since we have attributed jobs, and as there is not necessarily a one-to-one relationship between revenues and employees as they relate to U.S. versus non-U.S. proportions.

Q. What percent of the Internet Economy revenues did not exist before January 1, 1995?

Using 1995 as the base year for when the Internet Economy took off is a very reasonable assumption. Zona Research estimated that there was approximately $5.3 billion dollars in Internet and Intranet related revenues in 1995. Their measure was similar to the Internet Economy Indicators and serves as a reasonable estimate of Internet Economy in 1995.

Since we focused entirely on Internet-related revenues, it is reasonable to assume that a very small amount of the Internet Economy revenue existed before 1995. Many of the companies that we measured had significant revenue well before 1995, but note that this revenue was not Internet-related.

Using the 1995 number of $5.3 billion and our estimate of $301.4 billion in 1998, the Internet Economy grew at a compounded annual growth rate of 174%. By comparison, worldwide GDP estimates grew at a CAGR of 3.8%. Since the Internet Economy Indicators measure revenues differently than GDP estimates, we can use some assumptions to make the numbers more similar. If we assume that the infrastructure and applications layers are the inputs for the Internet economy and that the intermediary and transaction layers are the outputs, we can crudely approximate a GDP number of $150 billion for the Internet Economy. Using this smaller number, the Internet Economy still grew at a CAGR of 131%.

Q. How many high-tech jobs are in the US?

This question can have several answers depending upon how you define 'high-tech.' When the federal government measures high-tech jobs, they include R&D companies, engineering, mathematics, telecommunications and information services. These job numbers include all employees at those companies. We estimate that this number is around 5.9 million employees.

If we focus specifically on just IT jobs, meaning persons employed in an IT capacity at any U.S. company, there are several estimates available from the BLS and other research companies. The BLS estimates that in 1998 there were about 1.5 million IT jobs in the US. The Information Technology Association of America estimates that in 1998 there were 3.3 million IT jobs, which includes programmers, systems analysts, and computer engineers.

Q. What were the total high-tech revenues worldwide for 1998?

We have not been able to find a solid worldwide estimate for high-tech revenues. If you add together the revenues from the companies that we studied in the U.S., we estimate the worldwide revenue to be approximately $1.9 trillion U.S. dollars. This number was estimated using actual reported worldwide revenues from our research and other high-tech companies that were not in our Internet Economy research.

Q. Who else has attempted to track this data?

To the best of our knowledge, nobody has attempted to measure revenues and jobs and in the Internet Economy as thoroughly as our study. However, IDC, Forrester, IntelliQuest, Zona Research and others have looked at different components of the Internet Economy. Most research in the technology industry focuses on total revenues and does not attempt to separate Internet-related revenues from non-Internet revenues.

Q. How much did this study cost?

Cisco made a substantial investment in trying to understand how the Internet Economy operates and this first wave of the research represents the first installment of that investment. Cisco also recognizes that the current level of investment is just scratching the surface of understanding the Internet Economy and intends to continue investing in research related to the Internet Economy. To get an idea of the type of investment required to truly research the Internet Economy, the U.S. government's Bureau of Economic Analysis has asked for a fiscal year 2000 appropriation of $49 million, which includes $4.5 million dollars for new measurement tools to understand the 'new millennium economy' as they refer to it.

Personnel Related Questions

Q. How many man hours have gone into this research?

Approximately 3,000 people hours were used to measure the Internet Economy. This all occurred within a three month time horizon. A large team of research experts from across the US, using the Internet as a communications and research tool, combined to conduct the research.

The research team consisted of the professors and graduate students from the University of Texas at Austin Business School, research consultants from Cunningham Communications and outside research experts and analysts. In addition, primary research expertise was brought in from MarketVision Research, which specializes in econometrics based research. Jon Pinnell, the lead marketing scientist from MarketVision is a recognized expert in research in the technology industry and also in statistical sampling and modeling.

University of Texas: Anitesh Barua, Ph.D.
Andrew Whinston, Ph.D.
Ramesh Rao, DBA, Associate Dean for Graduate Programs
A team of four graduate students

Communications Cunningham Communications:
Jay Shutter, VP of Research
Brant Wilson, Ph.D. (Research consultant and analyst)

Market Vision Research:
Jon Pinnell, EVP of Research and Senior Marketing Scientist

Q. Why was UT selected to do this research?

UT's Center for Research on Electronic Commerce is an internationally acclaimed research body in the area of electronic commerce. Andrew Whinston, the Center's director, is widely regarded as a academic pioneer of Electronic Commerce. Whinston and his team have been engaged in cutting edge research in this area for well over 5 years. Furthermore, UT's Information Technology program is consistently ranked as a top 5 program in all national surveys. UT's "techno-MBA" program was ranked second in the nation, according to a Computerworld study. This study was coordinated by the Office of the Graduate Business Dean (OGBD) under the leadership of Associate Dean Dr. Ramesh Rao.

Q. Briefly describe the expertise of the UT professors and their Center.

Dr. Andrew Whinston is the Director of the Center for Research on Electronic Commerce at the Graduate School of Business at the University of Texas at Austin, and is a pioneer in and widely recognized authority in the field of electronic commerce.

Dr. Anitesh Barua is the Associate Director of the Center for Research on Electronic Commerce and is a leading authority in the area of measuring the business value of Information Technology investments.

UT's Center for Research on Electronic Commerce (C-REC) is an internationally acclaimed research body in the area of electronic commerce. Many pioneering research studies on Internet service pricing, electronic supplier selection strategies, content pricing, experimental electronic markets and digital products have been conducted at the Center.

Associate Dean Ramesh Rao of the Office of the Graduate Business Dean at UT is coordinating their joint research project with Cisco. Dr. Rao was responsible for arranging the partnership with the Graduate School of Business.

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