I. Political Effectiveness
We all think that we do live in a "new economy":
- Modern computing and communications technologies really are
changing the world.
- A transformation somewhat (but not completely) like the application
of steam power to textiles, or the creation of the assembly line.
- The interests of the Technology Network are more than those
of just another economic sector seeking a redistribution of wealth
in its direction.
How to teach this to politicians and their advisors?
- Limited time to spend grasping ideas.
- Limited technical competence.
- Different audiences--journalists, opinion makers, staff,
political principals.
II. This Study
Format: three sets of documents:
- Briefing version to be dropped into a larger presentation
as a five-minute section.
- The argument elaborated: twenty to thirty minutes.
- The argument bullet-proofed: to defend against those who
come to criticize the conclusions.
Purpose: to give politicians and those who want to advise them...
- ...a single bright thread they can hold on to.
- ...a framework for thinking about our new, knowledge-based
economy.
III. This Transformation
Something is certainly happening:
- Measures abound.
- What do you think the best measures are?
Underpinnings of the knowledge-innovation economy.
Why is this surge bigger and stronger than a typical
"leading sector"?
- Clusters of successive innovations.
- Semiconductors--computers--networking--next round?
Three principal elements:
- Shift in the sources of value.
- Decoupling of valuable information from its physical installation.
- Importance of common resources.
- New models of the enterprise made possible by new information
technologies.
IV. Shift in the Sources of Value
Previous leading sectors had been knowledge-based
- But the knowledge had become truly useful only when supported
by massive capital installations.
- Hence intellectual property largely protected itself.
Now it is no longer the case that knowledge is useful only
when backed by enormous capital investments
- Hence problems of intellectual property protection:
- Who will have the incentive to undertake development if competitors
can then easily appropriate it?
- Converse problems of intellectual property use:
- How to make sure that those who could make very good use
of knowledge get access to it on reasonable terms?
The network becomes not the source but the necessary
carrier of value:
- Importance of interoperability.
- Yet often somebody thinks that interoperability is to their
competitive disadvantage.
- Standards.
V. New Models of the Enterprise
It used to be that you had to be in the same room with others
to benefit from their knowledge and (white collar) work
- No accident that J.P. Morgan's partners shared desks in a
single large room back in 1900.
Then efficient organizations were those that had high degrees
of vertical integration
- And thus effective communication links between offices.
Now better information and communication technologies allow
for new models of the enterprise.
VI. Entrepreneurship and Information: America's Edge
The extraordinary synergy between America's "entrepreneurial"
orientation and the new models of the enterprise.
- Entrepreneurial culture.
- New modes of business development.
- New modes of business-to-business cooperation.
- New modes of employee compensation.
An extremely valuable set of business institutions for society.
- A source of the American comeback vis-a-vis other competitors.
- Yet will the standard business regulatory procedures have
enough flexibility to work well with these new business patterns?
But high-technology leadership will not stay American forever
without effort.
- There will be other unexpected nodes of innovation elsewhere
in the world.
- The role of foreign standard-setting.
VII. Historical Analogies
Television, telephone, telegraph, printed books...
Past transformative moments:
- J.P. Morgan and limited liability.
- Swift, Armour, and food regulation.
- British industrial revolution and technical education.
- Britain's agricultural revolution and the redefinition of
free range grazing rights.
Lessons:
- If the resources aren't there, the techno-economic
transformation isn't either.
- If the rules aren't a good fit, the techno-economic
transformation is hobbled.
Not a lesson, but an observation:
- Every big economic shift has many winners and many losers.
- Durable political coalitions to support government policies
don't last if there are lots of losers.
VIII. Policy
What should be the tone?
What issues should fill the boxes?
- Resources...
- Rules...
- Inclusion...
Political Effectiveness
We all think that we do live in a "new economy"--that
modern computing and communications technologies really are changing
the world.
- A transformation somewhat (but not completely) like the application
of steam power to textiles, or the creation of the assembly line.
- The interests of the Technology Network are more than those
of just another economic sector seeking a redistribution of wealth
in its direction.
How to teach this to politicians and their advisors?
- Limited time to spend grasping ideas.
- Limited technical competence.
- Different audiences--journalists, opinion makers, staff,
political principals.
Format of This Study
Three sets of documents:
Policy
What Should Be the Tone?
What Issues Should Fill the Boxes?
- Resources...
- Rules...
- Inclusion...
Something is happening, measures abound...
- What do you think the best indicators are?
Underpinnings of the knowledge-innovation economy--linear progression--informal
knowledge--formal knowledge-this
The present surge comes from a cluster of innovation--semiconductors--computers--networking--next
round of the surge (biotech, smart materials, ubiquitous computing)?
Why is this surge longer than a typical leading sector?
Logic in the technology... logic in the business sector...
New economic activities; reconfiguration are old ones; what
happens with the interface; what happens behind the screen...
Consequences: pervasive diffusion of transformative technologies
Historical analogies...